Teaching Comparative Government

This analysis concentrates on economics, but the questions for CompGov students revolve around the effects of sanctions on Iranian government and politics. Will moderate or hard line forces be strengthened? Can Iran survive sanctions? New tough sanctions targeting Iran's oil sector, imposed by the United States, come into force on Monday [12 November]. The Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, has responded robustly. "There is no doubt that the United States will not achieve success with this new plot against Iran as they are retreating step by step." Iran is heavily dependent on its exports of oil, and renewed sanctions, if effective, would hit the economy hard. Iran has the fourth largest reserves of oil. The EU has proposed supporting companies trading with Iran despite these new sanctions. But will these companies risk being hit by secondary sanctions which would limit their own ability to trade with the US? But other countries, including those of the European Union, ...

So, prices are going up very, very rapidly. What's the government have to with that? What politicians are likely to benefit? Which ones are likely to suffer? Iranian economists: The country is suffering highest inflation rates since WWII In an open letter, over 50 Iranian economists warned of a collapse in the Iranian economy, stating that the severe inflation of the rial has hit a high it had never reached in the past 75 years, since World War II. They also considered the continuation of what they called “wrong economic policies” that would lead to the suffering of Iranian families as the reason for this high rate of inflation in the country, according to the Iranian news agency ILNA. The experts also called on the heads of the parliament and judiciary to intervene... The experts pointed out that the current “incorrect policy” of managing the collapse in currency caused the currency to lose about 70 percent of its value since April under the threat of revived US sanctions, with he...

Watch for how the government and politicians react to this crisis. How would you react if the money in your pocket and in your bank account suddenly would buy only half of what it could have bought yesterday? Who would you blame? Iran’s Currency Crashes. Shortages and Fears Rise. Iran’s rial fell to a record low on Wednesday, part of a staggering drop in the currency’s value since the United States pulled out of the nuclear deal only four months ago… Iranians line up to exchange currencies Signs of the currency chaos can be seen everywhere in Tehran: Worried residents lined up outside beleaguered money changers, travel agents offered vacation prices only in hard currency, and diapers disappeared from store shelves… There was no immediate acknowledgement of the drop on state media. Iran’s economy has faced troubled times in the past, whether from the shah’s overspending on military arms in the 1970s or the Western sanctions that came after the 1979 Islamic Revolution and United Stat...

Things are not going well at the grassroots in Iran. BTW, when there are protests in South Tehran, the less affluent area of the city, unrest has spread beyond the wealthy, educated people. Iran protests resume for 6th day amid violent clashes with security forces Protests renewed in Tehran and several Iranian cities on Sunday evening, marking the sixth consecutive day of protests against the regime’s policies while some violent clashes erupted between protestors and security forces in some cities. Scene in Tehran, August 5. According to videos published by activists, there were protests in the neighborhood of Ekbatan, northwest of Tehran, in other areas like Daneshjoo Park in the center of Tehran, and in the streets of Karagar and Amir Abad in South Tehran. Protestors in Enghelab Street, in the center of Tehran, were chanting “Death to the Dictator.” A video showed security forces attack protestors while some young men burnt trash bins to obstruct the security forces’ advance. Violen...

What has the government in Iran done to deal with protest and dissatisfaction there? Iran Is Changing, but Not in Ways Trump Thinks President Trump says his decision to leave the nuclear agreement is already having a huge impact on Iran. He is right, Iranians say, but for the wrong reasons… [A]nalysts say there has been little or no change in Iran’s regional posture. The real impact to date has been on internal politics, with a repression on the slightest hints of dissent, and the economy, after the reimposition of sanctions. “A good economic and political process was underway in Iran,” said Mirzababa Motaharinezhad, a spokesman for Mardomsalary, a moderate political group. “Unfortunately, after Trump pulled out from the deal openness ended here and a crackdown on activists resumed.”… [I]n the small alleyways of Tehran’s bazaars and the luxury car dealerships in the affluent northern parts of the city, Mr. Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear agreement has definitely added to economi...

Are there political ramifications for this meeting? China to host Iranian President Rouhani China will host Iranian President Hassan Rouhani next month at a regional summit in a Chinese coastal city, the country's foreign ministry said on Monday… Presidents Rouhani and Xi Rouhani will pay a working visit to China and attend the summit of the China and Russia-led security bloc the Shanghai Cooperation Organization , the ministry said. It did not give exact dates for his visit, but the summit is scheduled to be held on the second weekend of June in the northern Chinese city of Qingdao. Iran is currently an observer member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, though it has long sought full membership. Russia has previously argued that with Western sanctions against Tehran lifted, it could finally become a member of the bloc which also includes four ex-Soviet Central Asian republics, Pakistan and India… Teaching Comparative blog entries are indexed. Use the search box to look fo...

Washington Post reporter Erin Cunningham offers this perspective on the race for president in Iran. His nuclear deal and economy are crumbling, but don’t write off Iran’s president yet The Iranian president’s signature achievement, a landmark nuclear deal with world powers, is starting to unravel, and his economy is in distress even before renewed U.S. sanctions begin to bite, with Iran’s currency swooning to record lows against the dollar. His domestic opponents are clamoring for his resignation… Longtime observers say it is far too early to count Rouhani out. They point to his skills as a shrewd political operator, honed over decades as a government insider, as well as his long-standing ties to Iran’s ruling clerics. For now, Iran’s pragmatist president continues to enjoy the support of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who wields the ultimate authority in the country… The mild-mannered Rouhani, a rotund cleric known for his constant smile, put a fresh, moderate face on Iran’s foreign...

It appears that economic protests are taking place in Iran. (See the original article for some important charts.) Labor Strikes and Worker Protests Erupt Across Iran: ‘This is Slavery’ Teachers went on strike in central Iran’s city of Yazd. Steelworkers and hospital staff walked off the job in the southwest city of Ahvaz. Railway employees protested near Tabriz. And a bus drivers union in Tehran battled the private companies that control many city routes. These were among the hundreds of recent outbreaks of labor unrest in Iran, an indication of deepening discord over the nation’s economic troubles. Workers are turning not only against their employers but also Iran’s government, piling pressure on leaders who promised but failed to deliver better times in the two years since economic sanctions were lifted in the nuclear deal… Prices of eggs, meat and bread are rising more than 10% a year, compounding consumer woes. Unemployment is about 12%, and the Iranian rial has fallen sharply ag...

It seems as if protesters find new methods of expression as often as the Iranian government shuts down avenues of protest. Iranians launch banknote protest to get round censorship "Banknotes are our un-censorable messengers," one user wrote, referring to a rumoured plan to permanently block the popular messaging app Telegram, which is by far the most popular digital communication tool in Iran. Slogans included "I am an overthrower". Some of the sayings were originally chanted during mass anti-establishment protests at the turn of the year. In late December, demonstrators took to the streets then to express their dissatisfaction with the social and economic situation in the country. Telegram was believed to have been the main platform people used to obtain and share information about the protests, which took place across Iran from late December 2017 to January 2018. Nearly 8,000 tweets have been posted since 28 April under the hashtag #Onehundredthousand_talking_ba...

What political consequences can you predict from this report? Dire figure shows 42 percent of Iran’s unemployed are university graduates Iran is facing a crisis represented in the high percentage of the unemployment among the universities and institutes graduates at 42 percent of the total unemployment. Dr. Saeed Nemki, Assistant in the Development of Social and Public Affairs [said]… “We are facing this situation, while educating these people had cost a lot. Thus we should think about a basic solution for this dilemma and eliminate the elite from immigrating (abroad),”… [T]he 42 percent of the unemployed, either have bachelor’s degree or even higher, despite allocating major financial resources for their graduation. This is a very important issue in the society. Actually, the society’s expected something different than those graduates. Thus brain drain is one of the worries facing the labor market in the future… Iranian news agencies published reports that mentioned the details of t...

If China is intent on using soft power to expand its influence, Iran wants to use hard power. At least some of the leadership does. And some does not. Senior military official says Revolutionary Guards will not stay within Iran’s borders Although President Hassan Rouhani said few days ago while marking Iran’s Army Day that Iran wants brotherly and strong relations with neighboring countries and rejects interfering in other countries’ internal affairs and noted that “dialogue is the only means towards peace in the region,” the Iranian Revolutionary Guards has contradicted him by stating that it will not commit to staying within Iran’s borders. … Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, the commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Navy, said the Revolutionary Guards’ activities “are not limited to Iran,” noting that the guards’ forces are currently fighting thousands of kilometers away from Iranian borders. Fadavi added that this military apparatus’ actual name is the “Islamic Revolutionary Gua...

If a government mismanages an economy, how is its legitimacy affected? Steep Slide in Currency Threatens Iran’s Economy All this week panicked Iranians have gathered in throngs outside banks and other financial businesses hoping to buy dollars, as the government seeks to head off a collapse in the rial, the national currency. But they have met with nothing but frustration, told there were no dollars or other currencies for them to buy at the official government rate… Forex rates in Iran Long on a downward path, the rial plunged this week, losing 35 percent of its value against the dollar and hitting what has been widely described as a record low. The government is seeking to impose an exchange rate of 42,000 to the dollar, but in Tehran’s black-market exchanges this week the going rate was 60,000… In an effort to squelch currency speculation, the government sent riot police into the bazaars on Wednesday, where they arrested several money changers… However, many of those changing m...

The primary source of this story comes from Al Arabiya .  The protests in Iran are taking place in the province of Khuzestan, located in the southwest part of the country adjoining the Persian Gulf. The province is the heart of Iran's oil wealth. A problem is that Khuzestan is also home to most of Iran's Arab minority (about 2% of the country's population). Ahwaz is a region in Khuzestan. We haven't heard much about this region because it's been repeatedly suppressed by Iranian regimes (pre- and post-revolutionary). It is a reminder that political cleavages often persist even after major political changes. Security forces suppress Iran’s Ahwaz protests as they reach fourth day Iranian security forces, backed by units of anti-riot police and the Revolutionary Guard, suppressed night demonstrations on the fourth day of protests by Arab citizens in the center of the city on Saturday… Videos and images shared on social media and local Ahwaz TV channels showed protester...

Iranian officials mocked for using foreign products It began with a televised address in Iran in celebration of Persian New Year on Tuesday, when Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei urged Iranians to support local products rather than importing from abroad. Soon afterwards, photos began to emerge on social media of some officials purportedly failing to follow that advice - including Khamenei himself. A photo of the Supreme Leader apparently getting out of a BMW was liked more than 1,200 times, with some people reposting the image alongside a picture of pre-Islamic Republic Prime Minister Amir-Abbas Hoveyda driving the first Iranian-made Paykan car in the 1960s. This tweet reads: "The PM of the corrupt Pahlavi regime driving a domestically made car, but the spiritual Leader of Muslims around the world riding on the unbelievers' hundred-million [dollar] car, the Republic of mottos." Some people defended Khamenei over the photo, with one person suggesting that the car may have belon...